Ho tloha ka 2021 ho isa ho 2022, ho bile le kholo e potlakileng 'marakeng oa lefats'e oa semiconductor ka lebaka la ho hlaha ha litlhoko tse khethehileng tse bakoang ke seoa sa COVID-19. Leha ho le joalo, ha litlhoko tse khethehileng tse bakiloeng ke seoa sa COVID-19 li felile halofong ea ho qetela ea 2022 mme tsa oela ho e 'ngoe ea ho putlama ho hoholo nalaneng ka 2023.
Leha ho le joalo, ho putlama ho hoholo ha moruo ho lebelletsoe ho theoha ka 2023, 'me ho lebelletsoe ho hlaphoheloa ka botlalo selemong sena (2024).
Ebile, ha re sheba thomello ea kotara ea semiconductor ka mefuta e fapaneng, Logic e se e fetile tlhoro e bakiloeng ke litlhoko tse khethehileng tsa COVID-19 mme e behile nalane e ncha ea nalane. Ntle le moo, Mos Micro le Analog li kanna tsa fihla holimo ka 2024, kaha ho fokotseha ho bakiloeng ke pheletso ea litlhoko tse khethehileng tsa COVID-19 ha ho bohlokoa (Setšoantšo sa 1).
Har'a bona, Mos Memory o bile le phokotseho e kholo, mme a theoha kotareng ea pele (Q1) ea 2023 mme a qala leeto la hae la ho hlaphoheloa. Leha ho le joalo, ho bonahala e ntse e hloka nako e telele ho fihlela tlhoro ea litlhoko tse khethehileng tsa COVID-19. Leha ho le joalo, haeba Mos Memory e ka feta tlhoro ea eona, thomello e felletseng ea semiconductor e tla fihla holimo haholo nalaneng. Ka maikutlo a ka, haeba sena se etsahala, ho ka boleloa hore 'maraka oa semiconductor o folile ka botlalo.
Leha ho le joalo, ha u sheba liphetoho tsa thepa ea semiconductor, ho hlakile hore pono ena e fosahetse. Lebaka ke hobane, le hoja thepa ea Mos Memory, e ntseng e hlaphoheloa, e se e folile, thepa ea Logic, e fihlileng holimo historing, e ntse e le maemong a tlaase haholo. Ka mantsoe a mang, ho hlasimolla 'maraka oa lefats'e oa semiconductor, thomello ea likarolo tsa logic e tlameha ho eketseha haholo.
Ka hona, sehloohong sena, re tla sekaseka thomello ea semiconductor le palo ea mefuta e fapaneng ea li-semiconductors le li-semiconductors tse felletseng. Ka mor'a moo, re tla sebelisa phapang lipakeng tsa thepa ea Logic le thomello joalo ka mohlala ho bonts'a hore na thepa ea TSMC ea li-wafer e salletse morao joang leha e fola kapele. Ho feta moo, re tla hakanya hore na ke hobane'ng ha phapang ena e le teng le ho fana ka maikutlo a hore ho hlaphoheloa ka botlalo ha 'maraka oa lefats'e oa semiconductor ho ka lieha ho fihlela 2025.
Qetellong, ponahalo ea hona joale ea ho hlaphoheloa ha 'maraka oa semiconductor ke "thetso" e bakoang ke li-GPU tsa NVIDIA, tse nang le litheko tse phahameng haholo. Ka hona, ho bonahala eka mmaraka oa semiconductor o ke ke oa hlaphoheloa ka botlalo ho fihlela lits'oants'o tse kang TSMC li fihlela bokhoni bo felletseng mme thepa ea Logic e fihla maemong a macha a nalane.
Semiconductor Shipment Value and Quantity Analysis
Setšoantšo sa 2 se bonts'a maemo a boleng ba thomello le bongata ba mefuta e fapaneng ea li-semiconductors hammoho le 'maraka oohle oa semiconductor.
Palo ea thomello ea Mos Micro e fihlile sehlohlolong kotareng ea bone ea 2021, e theohile kotareng ea pele ea 2023, mme ea qala ho fola. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, palo ea thomello ha ea ka ea bontša phetoho e kholo, e lutse e batla e bataletse ho tloha karolong ea boraro ho ea ho ea bone ea 2023, ka ho fokotseha hanyenyane.
Palo ea thomello ea Mos Memory e qalile ho theoha haholo ho tloha kotara ea bobeli ea 2022, e theohile kotareng ea pele ea 2023, mme ea qala ho nyoloha, empa e ile ea fola hoo e ka bang 40% ea boleng ba tlhoro kotareng ea bone ea selemo sona seo. Ho sa le joalo, palo ea thomello e khutletse ho hoo e ka bang 94% ea boemo bo holimo. Ka mantsoe a mang, tekanyo ea tšebeliso ea fektheri ea baetsi ba memori e nkoa e atamela matla a feletseng. Potso ke hore na litheko tsa Flash tsa DRAM le NAND li tla eketseha hakae.
Palo ea thomello ea Logic e fihlile sehlohlolong kotareng ea bobeli ea 2022, e ile ea theoha kotareng ea pele ea 2023, ea ntan'o phahama hape, ea fihla sehlohlolong se secha sa nalane kotareng ea bone ea selemo sona seo. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, boleng ba thomello bo ile ba phahama kotareng ea bobeli ea 2022, eaba bo theohela ho hoo e ka bang 65% ea boleng ba tlhoro kotareng ea boraro ea 2023 mme bo lula bo bataletse kotareng ea bone ea selemo sona seo. Ka mantsoe a mang, ho na le phapang e kholo lipakeng tsa boitšoaro ba boleng ba thomello le bongata ba thomello ho Logic.
Palo ea thomello ea analog e fihlile sehlohlolong kotareng ea boraro ea 2022, e theohile karolong ea bobeli ea 2023, mme esale e tsitsitse. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, kamora ho phahama kotara ea boraro ea 2022, boleng ba thepa bo ile ba tsoela pele ho theoha ho fihlela kotara ea bone ea 2023.
Qetellong, boleng ba thomello ea semiconductor ka kakaretso bo theohile haholo ho tloha kotara ea bobeli ea 2022, bo theohile kotareng ea pele ea 2023, 'me ea qala ho nyoloha, e khutlela ho hoo e ka bang 96% ea boleng ba tlhoro kotareng ea bone ea selemo sona seo. Ka lehlakoreng le leng, palo ea thomello le eona e theohile haholo ho tloha kotara ea bobeli ea 2022, e theohile kotareng ea pele ea 2023, empa esale e lula e bataletse, hoo e ka bang 75% ea boleng ba tlhoro.
Ho tsoa ho tse ka holimo, ho bonahala eka Mos Memory ke sebaka sa bothata haeba ho nahanoa palo ea thomello feela, kaha e se e folile ho fihla ho 40% feela ea boleng ba tlhoro. Leha ho le joalo, ha re nka pono e batsi, re ka bona hore Logic ke ntho e tšoenyang haholo, kaha leha ho fihletsoe maemo a holimo historing a bongata ba thomello, boleng ba thomello bo theohile hoo e ka bang 65% ea boleng ba tlhoro. Kameho ea phapang ena lipakeng tsa bongata ba thomello ea Logic le boleng e bonahala e atoloha ho fihla tšimong eohle ea semiconductor.
Ka kakaretso, ho hlaphoheloa ha 'maraka oa lefats'e oa semiconductor ho ipapisitse le hore na litheko tsa Mos Memory lia eketseha le hore na palo ea thomello ea likarolo tsa Logic e eketseha haholo. Ka litheko tsa DRAM le NAND li ntse li nyoloha, taba e kholo e tla be e eketsa palo ea thomello ea likarolo tsa Logic.
Ka mor'a moo, re tla hlalosa boits'oaro ba thepa ea TSMC le thomello ea liphaphatha ho hlakisa phapang lipakeng tsa bongata ba thomello ea Logic le thomello ea liphaphatha.
Boleng ba Thomello ea Kotara ea Kotara ea TSMC le Thomello ea Wafer
Setšoantšo sa 3 se bonts'a karohano ea thekiso ea TSMC ka li-node le mokhoa oa thekiso oa 7nm ho ea holimo kotareng ea bone ea 2023.
TSMC e beha 7nm le ho feta joalo ka li-node tse tsoetseng pele. Karolong ea bone ea 2023, 7nm e ne e le 17%, 5nm bakeng sa 35%, le 3nm bakeng sa 15%, e leng kakaretso ea 67% ea li-node tse tsoetseng pele. Ntle le moo, thekiso ea kotara ea libaka tse tsoetseng pele e ntse e eketseha ho tloha kotara ea pele ea 2021, e bile le phokotseho hanngoe karolong ea bone ea 2022, empa e ile ea theoha 'me ea qala ho phahama hape kotareng ea bobeli ea 2023, ea fihla nalaneng e ncha ea nalane. kotara ea bone ea selemo sona seo.
Ka mantsoe a mang, ha u sheba tšebetso ea thekiso ea li-node tse tsoetseng pele, TSMC e sebetsa hantle. Joale, ho thoe'ng ka lekeno la kakaretso la kotara ea TSMC ea thekiso le thomello ea liphaephe (setšoantšo sa 4)?
Chate ea boleng ba thomello ea kotara ea TSMC le thomello ea liphaphatha li batla li nyallana. E ile ea phahama nakong ea bubble ea IT ea 2000, e ile ea theoha ka mor'a ts'isinyeho ea Lehman ea 2008, 'me ea tsoela pele ho theoha ka mor'a ho phatloha ha memori ea 2018.
Leha ho le joalo, boitšoaro ka mor'a tlhoro ea tlhoko e khethehileng karolong ea boraro ea 2022 bo fapane. Theko ea thomello e ile ea nyolohela ho $ 20.2 billion, eaba e theoha haholo empa ea qala ho theoha ka mor'a ho theoha ho $ 15.7 billion kotareng ea bobeli ea 2023, ea fihla ho $ 19.7 bilione kotareng ea bone ea selemo sona seo, e leng 97% ea boleng ba tlhoro.
Ka lehlakoreng le leng, thepa e romelloang ka kotara e ile ea fihla sehlohlolong sa li-wafers tse limilione tse 3.97 kotareng ea boraro ea 2022, ea ntan'o theoha, ea theohela ho li-wafers tse limilione tse 2.92 kotareng ea bobeli ea 2023, empa ea lula e bataletse kamora moo. Le kotara ea bone ea selemo sona seo, leha palo ea li-wafers tse rometsoeng li fokotsehile haholo ho tloha tlhorong, e ntse e le li-wafers tse limilione tse 2.96, e leng phokotso ea li-wafer tse fetang milione e le 'ngoe ho tloha tlhorong.
Semiconductor e tloaelehileng haholo e hlahisoang ke TSMC ke Logic. Thekiso ea TSMC ea kotara ea bone ea 2023 ea li-node tse tsoetseng pele e fihlile sehlohlolong se secha sa nalane, 'me thekiso ka kakaretso e khutletse ho 97% ea tlhoro ea nalane. Leha ho le joalo, thepa e romelloang ka kotara ka kotara e ne e ntse e le ka tlase ho li-wafer tse limilione tse 1 ho feta nakong ea tlhoro. Ka mantsoe a mang, sekhahla sa tšebeliso ea feme ka kakaretso ea TSMC se ka ba 75%.
Mabapi le 'maraka oa lefats'e oa semiconductor ka kakaretso, thomello ea Logic e theohile ho fihla ho 65% ea tlhoro nakong ea tlhoko e khethehileng ea COVID-19. Ka mokhoa o ts'oanang, thomello ea kotara ea kotara ea TSMC e theohile ka li-wafer tse fetang milione e le 'ngoe ho tloha tlhorong, ha sekhahla sa ts'ebeliso ea feme e hakanngoa hore e ka ba 75%.
Ha re shebile pele, hore 'maraka oa lefats'e oa semiconductor o hlaphoheloe e le kannete, thomello ea Logic e hloka ho eketseha haholo, mme ho fihlela sena, sekhahla sa ts'ebeliso ea metheo e etelletsoeng pele ke TSMC e tlameha ho atamela matla a felletseng.
Joale, hantle-ntle see se tla etsahala neng?
Ho bolela esale pele Litefiso tsa Tšebeliso ea Mekhatlo e Meholo
Ka la 14 Tšitoe 2023, khamphani ea lipatlisiso ea Taiwan TrendForce e ile ea tšoara seminara ea "Industry Focus Information" ho Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. Seminareng, mohlahlobi oa TrendForce Joanna Chiao o buile ka "Tsela ea Lefatše ea TSMC le Semiconductor Foundry Market Outlook bakeng sa 2024." Har'a lihlooho tse ling, Joanna Chiao o buile ka ho bolela esale pele litekanyetso tsa ts'ebeliso ea lisebelisoa (Setšoantšo
Thepa ea Logic e tla eketseha neng?
Na 8% ee e bohlokoa kapa ha e bohlokoa? Leha ena e le potso e poteletseng, le ka 2026, 92% e setseng ea li-wafers e ntse e tla jeoa ke li-chips tse seng tsa AI semiconductor. Bongata ba tsena e tla ba li-chips tsa logic. Ka hona, hore thomello ea Logic e eketsehe le hore lits'ebeletso tse kholo tse etelletsoeng pele ke TSMC li fihle ka botlalo, tlhoko ea lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki joalo ka li-smartphones, li-PC le li-server li tlameha ho eketseha.
Ka kakaretso, ho ipapisitse le maemo a hajoale, ha ke lumele hore li-semiconductors tsa AI joalo ka li-GPU tsa NVIDIA e tla ba mopholosi oa rona. Ka hona, ho lumeloa hore 'maraka oa lefats'e oa semiconductor o ke ke oa hlaphoheloa ka botlalo ho fihlela 2024, kapa oa lieha ho fihlela 2025.
Leha ho le joalo, ho na le monyetla o mong (o nang le tšepo) o ka phetholang boprofeta bona.
Ho fihlela joale, li-semiconductors tsohle tsa AI tse hlalositsoeng esale li bua ka li-semiconductors tse kentsoeng ho li-server. Leha ho le joalo, hona joale ho na le mokhoa oa ho etsa ts'ebetso ea AI ho li-terminals (methati) joalo ka likhomphutha tsa motho, li-smartphones le matlapa.
Mehlala e kenyelletsa Intel's AI PC e reriloeng le liteko tsa Samsung tsa ho theha li-smartphones tsa AI. Haeba tsena li tumme (ka mantsoe a mang, haeba boqapi bo etsahala), 'maraka oa AI oa semiconductor o tla hola ka potlako. Ebile, feme ea lipatlisiso ea US Gartner e bolela esale pele hore mafelong a 2024, thomello ea li-smartphones tsa AI e tla fihla ho li-unit tse limilione tse 240, 'me thepa ea li-PC tsa AI e tla fihla ho li-unit tse limilione tse 54.5 (bakeng sa litšupiso feela). Haeba bolepi bona bo phethahala, tlhoko ea Logic ea morao-rao e tla eketseha (ho ea ka boleng ba thomello le bongata), 'me litefiso tsa ts'ebeliso ea litsi tse kang TSMC li tla nyoloha. Ntle le moo, tlhoko ea li-MPU le memori le tsona li tla hola ka potlako.
Ka mantsoe a mang, ha lefatše le joalo le fihla, li-semiconductors tsa AI e lokela ho ba mopholosi oa 'nete. Ka hona, ho tloha joale ho ea pele, ke rata ho tsepamisa maikutlo litloaelong tsa li-semiconductors tsa AI.
Nako ea poso: Apr-08-2024